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SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY WESTERN REGION REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT – June 2017
This report summarizes the monthly statistics for the Western Region of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®
(SGBAR). The SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay due to an amalgamation of the Midland
Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board in 2014. However, this report is restricted to the Western Region, formerly known as the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS®.
The Western Region of Southern Georgian Bay was beginning to see the usual seasonal increase in listings in the early spring of
2017 when the Government of Ontario introduced a 15 per cent tax on purchases by non-resident buyers, along with a host of other measures designed to cool the overheated market in Toronto and surrounding areas, causing noticeable shifts to the market.
Sales were down 18% year over year with 254 sales reported in June 2017 compared to 308 sales reported in June 2016. However, with the flurry of sales earlier in the year, the Year to Date (YTD) sales remained up slightly (1%) with 1392 sales reported vs 1378 in June 2016. Despite the decline in sales, the Total Sales Dollar Volume for June 2017 was up 3% over June 2016 likely indicative of the rising prices throughout 2017 brought on in many cases by multiple offers due to the shortage of inventory and the continuing trend of families and empty nesters seeking out Southern Georgian Bay as their new home. The Total Sales Dollar Volume YTD showed a substantial 27% increase, possibly due to rising prices across the Western Region and a substantial increase in sales for properties priced over $1,000,000. Overall supply remained at record lows. New listings were down, with 415 new listings reported June 2017 over 477 June 2016 marking a 13% decrease. YTD new listings were down 16% year over year with 2014 new listings reported June 2017 vs 2385 in June 2016.
Some potential Sellers may have chosen to wait and see what would happen to prices and overall market conditions. And yet despite the recent shifts in the market and some feelings of anxiety, Buyers were still willing to step up when they found the right home. The average sales price of a residential single family home was up across the board for the Western Region June 2017 over June 2016 however activity did vary area by area within the western region. The average sale price of a residential single family home in Collingwood in June 2017 was up 21.8%, $494,223 vs $405,637 in June 2016. The number of sales in Collingwood was down 11.6% year over year. The Blue Mountains reported a 22.2% increase in average sale price, $749,284 vs $613,105 year over year, with a 29.3% increase in the number of homes sold in June 2017 vs June 2016. Prices were up 26.6% in The Municipality of Meaford with June 2017 reporting an average sale price of $389,405 vs $307,674 in June 2016. The number of sales increased only 1.5% year over year. The average sale price in Grey Highlands jumped 26.5%, with the June 2017 price coming in at $557,805 vs $441,020 in June 2016. The number of sales increased 10%. Clearview reported a 31.1% increase in the average price, $560,662 over $427,587 year over year with an 18.8% decrease in the number of homes sold.
Most likely due to an ongoing insufficient supply in the lower price ranges, the number of sales of properties sold between $100,000 and $599,999 was down June 2017 over June 2016, with the exception of sales in properties priced between $400,000 and $499,999 where the sales were equal to last year (possibly due to the demand in properties under $400,000 driving prices upward). Sales in properties from $600,000 to $3,000,000 plus were up or equal to the number of sales year over year, with the exception of properties between $800,000 and $999,999, which perhaps were also in short supply. The ongoing trend of families selling in the Greater
Toronto Area (GTA) for top dollar and relocating to Southern Georgian Bay may be partly responsible for the peak in the number of sales of properties over $1,000,000.
The monthly Sales-To-Listings Ratio was 61.20 for June 2017 compared to 64.57 in June 2016. The ratio compares the number of sales to the number of listings in any given market. A Seller’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio reaches 55% or more. A Buyer’s market occurs when the Sales-To-Listings Ratio is 35% or less. The Western Region continues to experience a Seller’s market.
Months of Inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell (assuming that no more listings are added) at the current sales pace.
The Seasonally Adjusted Months of Inventory for June 2017 was 2.5 down from 2.7 last June, highlighting the tight market.
The unpredictability of the market in June may have prompted Buyers to hesitate, wondering if they were buying at the peak of the market, and conversely Sellers holding fast on their price, unwilling to adjust their expectations, causing a bit of a slowdown and standoff. This current breather is likely temporary and once everyone finds their footings with pricing, Buyers and Sellers will adjust and the market will probably settle into a more balanced phase.